Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Seattle, we have a problem

Besides the fire sale of players going on at Seahawks headquarters, and the lack of offense the Mariners provide, we are going to miss out on the Cy Young.

Felix has been on fire, playing for a bad team. I have pounded my fist on this blog and I will do it again. 

Felix is 11-10 at the time of this writing.  Of his 11 wins, 7 are at home, while 4 have been on the road.  Of the 10 loses, 6 have been on the road and the other 4 in pitcher friendly Safeco.  Of his 4 road wins, 2 were against the Yankees.  How well did he pitching in “homer friendly” Yankee stadium?  Well, I will tell you:  17 IP, 6 H, 1 CG, 0 ER, and 22K’s.  And by the way, 5 days after beating the Yankees, he beat the Red Sox with 1 ER and 8 K’s.  Felix has started in 30 games and only has 21 decisions.  Of his nine no-decisions, he left with the game tied or with a lead in seven of those games.  Of those seven, the Mariners won two.  The two games where he left in a losing position was when the team rallied to win, his first two starts of the year. 

Let’s compare that to CC, the lead runner in the Cy Young if wins were actually the only number that “mattered”.  At the time of this blog, he is 19-5, nothing to sneeze at.  All 5 loses have been on the road.  Of his wins, 8 have been on the road. CC has appeared in 29 games, so it is rather impressive to have a decision in 24 of those games.  

Why does this matter?  Well, it really shouldn’t.  The days of having pitchers throwing complete games every other day are long gone.  You have designated pitchers for long relief, setup, and closer.  This combination means that a “team” in involved in providing W’s in the win column, not one individual.  Not only is there a fleet of pitchers to provide team support to a starter, but there is also a defense and an offense.  Plus, in the AL, pitchers do not bat!  My goal here is tell the writers to NOT hang their hat on one stat.  Putting W’s aside, how do these two compare.



Rank in AL


Rank in AL

IP’s 219.1 1st 202.2 2nd
CG 5 3rd 2 10th
ERA 2.25 1st 3.02 5th
QS 27 1st 23 2nd
Ks 209 1st 165 7th
Opp BA .219 3rd .239 13th
Wins 11 T-7th 19 1st
WHIP 1.09 3rd 1.20 13th

(QS = Quality starts).  For those of you unaware, WHIP is walks and hits per innings pitched. 

If you put your hand over the win column, Felix is the clear choice for the Cy Young.  Take a look at the teams.  The Yankees have 32 more wins than the Mariners, 32!  That has to play into this decision somehow.

I think the most telling stat of dominate pitching is the K count.  Felix has been battling with Jared Weaver for this title and currently has a 2K lead.  That is the one stat that clearly shows how a pitcher can dominate his opponent at the plate. 

My fear, CC wins the Cy Young.  This decision should have impact on future votes as wins could be argued as the least important stat to a pitcher’s overall ability to pitch successfully.

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